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Another guest post by everyone’s crazy PF guy Rob Bennett. For the record, I really like this post. It’s short and to the point. It does a good job of giving all of us a decent primer to what the heck he’s talking about.

My question to Rob is this: If a retiree has say 80% of her portfolio in bonds, how does that affect the way things are calculated? Do bond valuations get factored into Rob’s formula?

Anyway, without further adieu, let me give the floor to Rob.

Matt and Sam both retire with $1 million portfolios. Mike plans to take out $40,000 to cover each year’s living expenses. Sam plans to take out $80,000. Which retirement is safer?

Your first thought is probably that Matt has the safer retirement. He’s withdrawing only 4 percent of portfolio value each year while Sam is withdrawing 8 percent.

Not so fast. To know which retirement is safer, you need to look at what valuation level applied at the start of each of the two retirements.

If Matt retired in 2000, when stocks were priced at three times fair value, the true value of his portfolio was only $350,000. His true withdrawal percentage is three times 4 percent, or 12 percent, That’s a dangerous withdrawal percentage.

If Sam retired in 1982, when stocks were priced at one-half fair value, the true value of his portfolio was $2 million. His true withdrawal percentage is one-half of 8 percent, or 4 percent. That’s a safe withdrawal percentage.

It turns out that Sam’s retirement is a whole big bunch safer than Matt’s. But you wouldn’t know it by using the retirement calculators available on the internet today.

None of today’s retirement calculators (except for the retirement calculator that I developed — The Retirement Risk Evaluator) contain an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. Dallas Morning News Columnist Scott Burns explained why in a June 2005 column — “It is information most people don’t want to hear.” Most of us want to hear fairy tales about stock investing during a bull market and most “experts” are happy to go along.

It’s our desire to hear fairy tales and the willingness of the “experts” to go along that causes failed retirements. Valuations matter. We need to start taking valuations into consideration when telling people whether their retirement plans are safe or not.

Rob Bennett created the Investor’s Scenario Surfer, a portfolio allocation calculator. His bio is here.

 

I like debt. Wait, let me rephrase that.

I like investing in debt. Prices are more stable, so are returns. It gives you exposure to an entirely different asset class, a class that performs pretty much inversely to stocks.

Debt comes in many forms. You could buy mortgage debt, government debt, corporate debt or the much riskier corporate debt, junk bonds. You can also buy convertible debentures, municipal bonds, real return bonds and lend money to regular people through social lending websites. The world of debt is absolutely massive, and that doesn’t even count preferred shares.

With all these options, how does the average person include debt in their portfolio?

My favorite method is to buy individual preferred shares. While they’re somewhat illiquid, they can easily be traded by the retail investor. Typically they hover between the $20 and $25 range, meaning an investor can buy a block at a much more reasonable price than buying a block of bonds.

If someone has $20,000 to put towards debt, they could easily buy 8 different preferred shares in 8 different sectors. Is that diversified enough? If one company gets hammered and goes to zero, 12.5% of the portfolio gets wiped out. I’m confident that the preferred shares I’m invested in are from only high quality companies, but an investor is taking on some risk by only holding a handful of prefs.

What’s an investor to do? Luckily, the market has come up with a great solution. Bond ETFs.

I absolutely love bond ETFs. You can buy everything in the risk spectrum from short term government debt to high risk junk bonds and everything in between. They offer instant diversification and if you’re willing to buy into some of the riskier issues you can earn double digit yields.

Personally I hold some shares in a closed end fund called the Dreyfuss High Yield Strategies Fund. This is an interesting play, as they use leverage to help amplify returns. The fund currently pays out a hair less than 10% and I’m sitting on a comfortable gain over the $3.00 purchase price, a nice return once you include the income distribution. This fund is definitely on the higher end of the risk spectrum in the world of debt.

I’m not smart enough to try to trade debt. Yes, interest rates will be going up soon, probably having a negative effect on bond prices. If you’re smarter than me then perhaps you can figure out how to use that information to make money. I’ll just buy a good fund of debt at a yield I’m happy with and hold it long term.

This begs another question: at what point should you sell your debt? I have a nice sized capital gain on my Dreyfus fund. Is it time to sell and lock in profits?

Knowing when to sell is always a tough decision. I think that if you look at your bond fund and you wouldn’t buy it because the yield is too low then maybe it’s time to sell.

 

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