Jan 042011
 

Every year a bunch of personal finance bloggers get together and hold a stock picking contest. Even though picking 4 stocks to own for only a year is a crapshoot, the concept is pretty fun and you all know I’ll harass the hell out of anyone I beat. Let’s check out this artist’s recreation:

I’m such a gracious winner.

Anyway, without further adieu, here are my picks. If you’re a fellow blogger and you want some competition to your picks, let me know and I’ll set up some sort of tracking system. And if you beat me, don’t laugh too hard. I’m sensitive.

(Note: I’m using Dec 31st closing prices)

Pick #1: Nokia (NOK NYSE)
Closing Price: $10.32

With all the commotion surrounding Apple, RIM and Motorola, everybody forgets about Nokia. While Nokia is weak in the smartphone market, they should be able to start cracking it with some new models they have in the pipeline. Nokia is also great at making cheap, basic phones and selling them to the developing world. Nokia holds close to 40% market share worldwide, still making it the dominant leader. I originally bought Nokia for $9.55 around 6 months ago, making it a pretty solid performer for me thus far.

2. Duoyuan Printing (DYP NYSE)
Closing Price: $2.93

Regular readers know that Duoyuan is my most recent acquisition for the Uproar fund, paying $2.80 per share. Even though the company is suffering through an accounting scandal, they sit on $2.90 worth of cash per share, as well as trading at less than 3 times trailing earnings. This one is a bit of a gamble, just like any stocks with accounting scandals are. The company has reported that the whole hubbub is regarding only $3 million and I’m confident the company sorts the whole thing out.

This is the type of stock that’s perfect for a stock picking contest. It could easily double or be cut in half. I’m hoping for the double. My target price is $9.00

3. Paragon Shipping (PRGN: NYSE
Closing Price: $3.43

I’ve been looking at the shipping companies for a little while now but haven’t done enough research t0 be comfortable enough to initiate a position in any of the stocks. So far though, my favorite is Paragon Shipping. They trade at attractive levels on a price/book and debt/equity metrics compared to their peers. The fleet is relatively new. They pay an attractive dividend, ($.20 per year) representing a yield of 5.8%. Their dividend seems the safest of the group. I am concerned with the company taking on additional debt in the past year however.

The shipping stocks are tied with an economic recovery. Considering the stock market is a forward indicator and experts see a recovery in 2012, I think shipping stocks are a good place to be in 2011.

4. New Frontier Media (NOOF: NASQ)
Closing Price: $1.72

New Frontier is a distributor of adult movies to hotels and cable/satellite companies. They sit on a bit of cash as well as trading close to book value. The company has been expanding to the Middle East and Africa, markets that both they and I are bullish about. The company is slightly profitable at this point. The company is also a favorite of value investor Saj Karsan. Check out his writeup of the company.

So, there we have it, my 4 stock picks for 2011. If I win, you all totally owe me a prize.

DISCLOSURE: Author owns NOK and DYP.


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  6 Responses to “2011 Stock Picking Contest Entries”

  1. I have never heard of 3 of those companies.

    I would like to add my picks as well.

    Here are my top picks for 2011 (personally owned) – http://www.groceryalerts.ca/best-four-stock-picks

    ARISE Technologies Corporation
    RBC
    Unilever
    Exchange Income Corporation

  2. I actually already own the first three, but I'm bullish on them for 2011 too. The fourth is a pick I'd like to get into. I'll have to do a post on my blog about this.

    1. General Electric (GE NYSE)
    Closing Price: 18.29

    This is a great company with great management that is heavily focuses on green stuff, which is where lots of government money is going. I see a great opportunity here.

    2. American Tower Corporation (AMT NYSE)
    Closing Price: $51.64

    You want to invest in mobile phones, tablet PCs and everything else that uses 3G and 4G connections, but don't know which carrier is gonna win? That's ok, just buy the physical infrastructure.

    3. British Petroleum (BP NYSE)
    Closing Price: $44.17

    They were around $60 before the spill. The spill is behind them now, and they are sitting at $45. It'll come back.

    4. Bank of America (BAC NYSE)
    Closing Price: $13.34

    This stock was down 11% last year while the S&P was up 14%. They will come back. Market analysts love this stock.

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