For those of you who are new around here, I’m a big proponent of paying yourself first. All you need to do is figure out what your savings goal is, and set up an automatic deduction at the bank to make it happen. It takes all of 15 minutes to do, and it’s done forever. I continue to advocate it because it’s so damn easy.

Most people are pretty bad at saving money. By automating their savings, they make something that can be complicated easy. And if you make savings easier, you’re more likely to succeed at it. This is why so many personal finance bloggers advocate paying yourself first.

There’s other ways to save money too. You can just not spend so much, letting the excess accumulate in a savings account. As I get older, this is the method I find myself using more and more. I’m generally kind of a cheap bastard frugal guy by nature, and money just kind of accumulates in my savings. I also enjoy the cash buffer, even though I’m kind of anti emergency fund.

Or, you could take all your change and put it into a giant jar. That might be fun.

That’s the method advocated by Eddie over at Finance Fox. He saves his change in a jar, and then takes the jar every few months to the grocery store. He feeds the coins into the counting machine, which then gives him a little receipt which he can redeem at the till for cash.

There’s only one problem: the coin counting machine charges a 10.9% fee to do his counting dirty work. So, for every dollar he puts away, he actually only gets a little over 89 cents. This might be the worst possible way to save money. This is like taking your dollar, and buying shares of a company that you know will lose 11% of its value. He knows he’ll lose money by saving this way, yet he keeps doing it.

Why doesn’t he just count it himself? Like all of us, he’s a busy guy. He figured out it would take him an hour and a half to count the change, which isn’t worth $11 per $100 worth of change. So he doesn’t have time to count the change, but he advocates a labor intensive way to save money. Makes total sense.

But it’s okay everyone! It doesn’t matter if paying an 11% (yeah, screw it, I’m rounding up) fee on your savings is a really bad idea. It doesn’t matter if saving just $100 in a few months is a pretty poor amount. It doesn’t matter if he actually thinks this is a good value, even though it clearly isn’t. None of this matters. You know why? Because it “works for him.”

“Works for me” has become the personal finance excuse to use when somebody uses numbers to dispute whatever idea you have. Don’t bother to actually respond to legitimate criticisms that people have. Nothing else matters, because you’ve figured out something that works for you.

Back to the issue of saving your change. I still don’t understand why you’d bother. I use a combination of cash and credit card for my monthly expenses. I accumulate change, just like everyone with cash will. So what do I do? Sometimes, while I pay for stuff, I use my change. Or, if the amount comes to $12.14, I’ll give the cashier a $20 bill and then $2.14 in change. That way, I use my change, and I get the added bonus of pissing off the guy in line behind me.

Plus, you can carry a change purse, if being gay floats your boat.

The cherry on top of the saving change strategy is that several Canadian banks offer a way to do it using your debit card, which is okay only if you’re making enough transactions on your debit card to justify the monthly fee for the bank account. The bank will round up each purchase to the nearest dollar, electronically transferring those small amounts to your savings account. I think you can even round up your purchases to the nearest $5 increments, if you’re more serious about spare change saving. If you spend the money on an unlimited debit card transaction account anyway, this isn’t such a bad way to save. It’s not great, but it’s not horrible either.

Hey, at least you’re not paying an 11% fee to save money. Don’t do that. Ever.

 

 

 

For anyone who follows my Twitter, it won’t come to a surprise that my favorite baseball team is the Toronto Blue Jays. Hey, I’m Canadian, I gotta cheer for the home-country team, right? Even though the Blue Jays are in the midst of another mediocre season, not all is bleak in Toronto.

In October 2009, Toronto finally fired longtime General Manager J.P Ricciardi, mostly because he had a gigantic nose. No, wait, that’s not right. Ricciardi was hired in 2001, and was given 8 years to turn the team into a contender. Ricciardi came highly recommended as a member of Billy Beane’s “Moneyball” Oakland A’s management team of the late 1990s. Even though the corporate owner (Roger’s Communications) opened up their wallets for both prominent free agents and to keep homegrown talent around, the Jays never even got close to making the playoffs during Ricciardi’s tenure.

Enter Ricciardi’s longtime assistant, Alex Anthopoulos. He was promoted to the head job when Ricciardi was fired. In just 2 short years, AA (like I’m typing out that tough Greek name more than once. Ricciardi was bad enough.) has made a series of shrewd moves that have quickly cemented his reputation as one of the better GMs in the league.

And the good news, at least for the guy who writes this blog, is that AA’s good moves can be applied to your personal finances. Here’s how.

Make The Most Of Limited Resources

Even though the Jays are owned by mega rich Roger’s Communications, their corporate owners aren’t just going to let the General Manager spend as much money as he wants. The Red Sox and Yankees have the resources to spend their way out of their problems. The other 28 teams do not.

One of the best moves made by Anthopoulos was to trade starting center fielder Vernon Wells to the Anaheim Angels. The Blue Jays received 2 players in return, but they’re not important. The significance of the trade was that Angels assumed all of the over 80 million dollars still owed over the last 4 years of Wells’ contract. The savings gave the Blue Jays the resources to sign Jose Bautista, who helpfully decided to become the best hitter in the league after the team acquired him for next to nothing.

Just like your finances, teams only have a certain amount of money they can spend. Well, except for the two teams mentioned. Since a full 90% of the team’s expenses are player salaries, trading high priced players can free up money to be spent later, like locking up a promising young player to a long term deal. Which brings us to point 2.

Controlling Costs

Baseball has a somewhat unique system for determining how much young players get paid. For the first 3 years of pro ball, players get a base salary, which is followed up by a form of salary arbitration over the next 3 years. What it means is that, for the first 6 years in the major leagues, a player plays at a discounted salary compared to a veteran who is free to explore free agency. Naturally, a really good young player is highly regarded. Not only does that player have potential, but they’re paid less than a player who was a free agent.

In July 2010, the Blue Jays sent shortstop Alex Gonzalez and 2 minor leaguers to the Atlanta Braves for shortstop Yunel Escobar and pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes. When the Jays’ acquired Escobar, he still had all three years of arbitration to go through. The team got a shortstop with upside, knowing they’ll have him at a discounted price for 3 years. It turns out the team signed him to an extension, which could keep him in Toronto through 2015.

How does this apply to your finances? Find ways to control costs in your life. Don’t resign yourself to things like car payments or buying too much house. You only have so many dollars to spend, finding areas to cut back on is a good thing.

Buying Assets When Nobody Else Wants Them

Over the last year, tension began to form between highly regarded center fielder Colby Rasmus and St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa. Combine that with an off-year, and it appeared the once blue chip prospect would be traded from St. Louis.

Enter Alex Anthopoulos.

The Jays’ GM orchestrated a three team deal, landing the prize he so wanted, Rasmus. The young center fielder has the potential to be a superstar, both offensively and defensively. He’s just 25 years old. He’s just the type of player to build a team around. And, for the most part, the Jays got him for spare parts.

Like any good investor should do, the Jays acquired an asset when he was undervalued. Time will tell how well the transaction works out, but the Jays look like the clear winners of the Rasmus trade.

Hard Work Is Rewarded

AA is relentless when it comes to exploring trades. He’s notorious for following up on every rumor he hears, maintaining contact with every GM in the league. When he hears a player he wants is available, he’ll tirelessly work to bring that player to Toronto. His work ethic is widely known. Time will tell, but Anthopoulos is getting results by working hard.

So there you go. Like any business, running an MLB team is a tricky proposition. Just like the now infamous Moneyball philosophy of the Oakland A’s, a GM can turn a team into a winner by being smarter than his competition. Only time will tell whether the Toronto Blue Jays will become a playoff team under Anthopoulos, but they’re off to a good start.

 

What do Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein have in common? Besides, of course, some rockin’ facial hair? Combined, they killed millions of people. They started wars practically on their own. They were generally some pretty bad dudes. In fact, you could even go as far as calling each of them evil.

He’s so good at being evil that they made him a doctor.

Sometimes, certain words are thrown around a little too often. People are inclined to call themselves “nerds” these days, even when describing things that aren’t the least bit nerdy. I’m guilty of saying I “hate” something, when really I should say “mildly disagree” with it. Sometimes this happens because we tend to dabble in hyperbole for comedic effect. Or, we’re just idiots who don’t know the right word for the right situation. You decide.

One example I see of this is with the debt is evil crowd. If you’ve read any amount of financial blogs, you’ve probably heard this mantra at least once. Usually its author has gotten into some sort of hole created by easy access to credit. And while digging out of this hole, expressed their frustration at their debt. Does that make debt evil, or just the author a moron for accepting it?

Banks and credit card companies have never forced someone to take out a loan. Even when the unsolicited offers arrive in the mailbox, the onus is still on you to initiate contact and start the whole process of applying for credit. Even when the card arrives in the mail, you could still cut it up and throw the thing in the trash. But no, you gladly cracked that bad boy out and started spending. Debt is a mistake made solely by the borrower. Is that why you consider it evil?

When used responsibly, debt has the potential to raise your income. Even though I think college isn’t for everyone, the fact remains that college grads make more than high school grads. As long as you don’t piss away your money getting a degree that qualifies you to work at Starbucks, student loans can be a terrific investment in your future.

Say you spend $25k on an education that will improve your earning potential by $10k per year. That investment pays for itself in 2.5 years. Meaning, those student loans are the equivalent of getting a 40% return on that investment for the rest of your life. You’d have to be an absolute moron to call that evil. Millions of young people have been given the opportunity to attend college thanks to student loans. For the most part, these people enjoyed better jobs, higher pay and the increased security that comes with being better educated. Instead of paying for this schooling upfront, they were able to defer the cost, while paying a reasonable interest rate. There’s a reason governments are very generous in their support of student loans.

The same concept applies for the other big ticket purchase everyone finances, real estate. With a traditional mortgage, you buy a house and slowly pay for it over 25 years. What the renters and the pay cash for the house people forget is that, over time, each payment is progressively less, thanks to inflation. My $450 bi-weekly payment is slowly going down, since inflation is slowly eating into the value of that money.

Countless companies have either been saved or grown substantially by using debt. Virtually any real estate related company of any size was grown using debt. McDonalds just about drowned under their debts when they first started taking off in the early 1960s. The same thing happened to Canadian icon Tim Horton’s just a few years later. By using debt in their early years, these companies were able to speed growth and set the groundwork for future success.

It’s pretty easy to figure out whether taking out debt is a good idea. Are you using the debt to buy something that will go up in value? If the answer is yes, then apply for that loan.

I generally have quite the aversion to financing cars. I’ve questioned why having a car payment is just accepted.  I don’t care if the car company is letting you borrow the money at a low rate, you’re still paying interest on something that goes down in value. It goes down in value, you pay to operate it and to insure it, and you’re still financing it? Just buy a beater. Believe me, the repair bills won’t be that bad, especially if you just use your car around town.

Debt that finances liabilities should be avoided. It’s never a good idea to pay interest on a trip, or video games, or even a car. But just because you’re stupid enough to do it doesn’t make it evil.

 

In case you missed it, (and if you did, you clearly need to pay more attention) I went to the Taylor Swift concert on Thursday. I know, you’re sick of hearing about it. This will be the last time, I promise.

I went with some friends, and we got to the concert a little early. This gave us an opportunity to walk around and people watch a little. As expected, there were a LOT of 12 year old girls there. And damn, were they loud. They were loud walking around the concourse, and they continued that level of volume throughout the night. I felt a little silly at times, since I am most definitely not a 12 year old girl.

Taylor put on a solid show. She’s definitely a master at working the crowd. Just by tilting her head to one side of the stadium could cause that side to cheer loudly. She did a nice job of getting the crowd involved. I just wish the average age was a little higher.

Random Thing That Irritated Me This Week

Sacrifice bunts. Generally, a pretty poor idea.

Random Thing I Enjoyed This Week

While I typically not much of a browser, I enjoyed my time at the giant mall in west Edmonton.

I got myself a new Blue Jays hat, which has the cool retro logo from the early 1990s on it. I definitely like it. Plus, it was basically free. How?

My buddy decided he wanted to play some poker, so we ventured to the casino. He had to wait until a spot opened up for him, so we decided to sit down in front of some penny slots. I know, I’m a bad PFer. I shouldn’t even have a blog anymore.

After about 10 minutes on the machine, I had turned my $20 into $53. So I took my profits and bought a hat.

Song I Like And Therefore You Should Too

This song is so incredibly cheesy. I therefore love it.

If you watched WWF in the early 1990s like I did, you probably remember Hulk Hogan coming out to this song. He’d do that over the top hand to his ear thing, then step up and kick the crap out of the heel du jour. Remember when guys pretending to beat the crap out of each other was good wholesome family entertainment?

Simpsons Quote Of The Week

Moe: I must be the ugliest person alive.

Homer: Oh, Moe, there are lots of people uglier than you. Have you ever been to White Castle?

Me So Hungy

We stayed at a hotel right across the street from the concert venue (great idea, btw) and we decided to eat there right before we headed over. So we go inside, and the cute hostess informs us that they’re only doing a buffet, since they expected to be busy right before the concert. Guys, I ate the hell out of that buffet. Do not let a recovering fat guy near a buffet that awesome.

There were perogies, mashed potatoes, roast beef, lasagna, and the most delicious chicken ever. They were breaded, and shaped vaguely like patties. The breading was nice and crunchy, with just enough spice to keep things interesting. My first was white meat and my second was dark, which was an interesting twist.

It was great, except for the 8000 tattoos on the otherwise attractive waitress.

Entertain Yourself Dammit

I’ve spent most of my free time reading this week, since I have approximately 3303 books out from the library.

I just started The Cash Nexus by Niall Ferguson. I really enjoyed The Ascent of Money, and it seems like Cash Nexus is pretty similar. Both books look at the history of money and financial systems. In fact, I think I’m going to go read it after I’m done here.

Oh, and I LOVE the fact the Saskatchewan Roughriders fired their coach, and then he had a press conference just to say how stupid they were for firing him. Uh, pretty sure it goes without saying the guy who just got fired would be upset with it.

Babe Loosely Related To Finance

I’m normally not a fan of the bathroom mirror pic, but I’ll make an exception for this Michelle Branch picture.

Taylor, move over. Nelly has a new celebrity singer chick crush.

Oh Right, Time For Links

Everyone head over and congratulate Holy Potato on getting his doctorate. Even though he’s clearly not a medical doctor, I will still hit him up for free medical advice. Hey, what do you think this rash is?

I bashed leasing a car over at Canadian Finance Blog. I still can’t believe people still lease. Such a bad idea.

Dividend Ninja has a nice analysis on Staples. You’ll have to click through to see whether he actually pulled the trigger and bought some.

I love Sandy’s tenant from hell stories. Here’s part 3. Oh, and there’s still a part 4 coming. I shouldn’t be so excited by Sandy’s pain.

Studenomics channels his inner Seth Godin, challenging people to actually create value.

Krystal is thinking about getting a scooter. It’s worth a click through just to see my scooter joke.

That’s all I got. I’m tired.

Carnivals This Week

Control Your Cash hosted The Carnival of Wealth.

Have a good week everyone.

 

Since at least half of my readers are intelligent and awesome, (don’t worry, you’re totally in that half) I’m going to take a break from dispensing the advice and turn to you guys for a little guidance. Or, what’s more likely to happen, I’ll come to a conclusion on my own after writing the post, and I won’t need your help anyway. It’s okay though, feel free to leave me your two cents in the comment section. As always, it’ll be ignored.

As Financial Samurai likes to remind us every 17 seconds, interest rates are super low right now. Because so many investors are fleeing the stock market for the safety of bonds, they’ve driven the price of these bonds up substantially. Since there’s so much demand, interest paid to the borrowers is extremely low. This is bad news for investors, but good news for borrowers.

Enter my situation

The skinny:

Amount owed: $150,000

Remaining amortization: 16 years

Current payment: $450 bi-weekly

Current interest rate: Prime minus 0.3% (currently 2.70%)

Term expiry: August 2013

You should note that the mortgage amount owing, payment and amortization are all approximate numbers. I could find out the exact amounts, but I’m lazy. Some people manage to run their finances without micromanaging them.

I was reading the wonderful Canadian Mortgage Trends website, and they informed me of a promotion ATB Financial was having. For the next little while, ATB is offering a five year fixed mortgage for 3.09%. This is only 40 basis points above my current rate. This is a very cheap fixed rate.

First of all, let’s look at the cost of switching lenders. Because I went with the variable rate mortgage back in 2008 when I bought my house, my mortgage rate crept down with rates in general. For a little while, I was paying a mortgage just a hair above 2%.

As you might recall from one of my posts about mortgages, payout penalties are either 3three months interest or the interest rate differential between my current mortgage and the same mortgage now. Since there’s no difference between what I have and what’s offered (because of the variable rate), I’d be stuck paying the three month interest penalty.

Three months interest: $983.06. So I’m looking at a penalty of about a thousand bucks.

Let’s assume I roll that penalty back into my mortgage, so this process doesn’t cost me anything out of pocket. My handy dandy mortgage calculator tells me that if I keep my payment the same, I’ll add about a half a year on to my amortization. The amortization goes to 16.45 years from 15.8 years.

There’s going to be an additional cost for interest, at least at first. Currently I’m on pace to pay $3925 in interest. If I switch to a 3.09% rate, I’ll have to shell out $4527 in interest. $600 a year is nothing to sneeze at, and I highly suspect I’ll be paying it for each of the next two years.

But what happens then? Expectations are that interest rates are going to stay low for an extended period of time. But just how long will that be? Let’s look at a couple of scenarios:

Scenarios

First of all, we have what most people think will happen. Rates will stay low, the Bank of Canada will sit on the current rate, since the economy could use some stimulation. If this happens, I’m better off staying with my current mortgage and only refinancing when my expiring term forces me to do so. I’ll avoid a penalty that way, and I’ll have my pick of lenders offering the same low rates as today.

Scenario two is that rates start to creep up a year from now. The economy has started to recover sooner than expected. For the sake of argument, let’s say the Bank of Canada has raised rates twice, pushing prime up to a still reasonable 3.5%. At this point, my variable rate has become 3.2%.

Traditionally, the spread between five year fixed and variable rates has been between 1-1.5%. So if variable is 3.2%, a five year fixed would be anywhere from 4.19%-4.79%. If the economy recovers, we’ll start to see more normal spreads between fixed and variable rates. If this situation occurs, I’ll be kicking myself for not locking in now.

What Does It All Mean?

As much as I crunch the numbers, this problem basically comes down to one question. Where will interest rates go in the next two years?

If they go up, even just a little, refinancing makes all sorts of sense at this current rate. If they stay the same, I’ve just paid over $2000 in an attempt to guess interest rate trends. While $2000 isn’t a huge amount of money, I’m still risking something on the guess.

The contrarian in me thinks rates can’t stay this low for long. I understand the market is a scary place right now, but we’re approaching bubble territory in fixed income. Just how long will investors accept a 2% return on a 5 year bond, considering inflation is close to 2%? I’d rather have my money sitting on the sidelines.

Remember when I said I’d figure out the situation myself? I’m still stumped. Readers, the floor is yours.

 

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