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Real estate week continues here at Financial Uproar, and I can see you’re literally shaking in excitement, since I’m standing right outside your window. Yes, I was there earlier when you did those unspeakable things to yourself. No, I won’t put the video on the internet, providing you read the rest of this post. You’re welcome.

Today’s post is more directed at the older generation, so kids, get your parents right now, which will be easy if you still live in their basement. You might have to show them how to use the mouse, but it’s important they read this, especially if they’re living in a house that’s fully paid for.

Today, unless you’re lucky enough (or unlucky enough, depending on your perspective) to work for the government, your chances of getting one of those defined benefit pension plans are diminishing by the year. Companies just can’t afford to give them out to anybody these days, so I’m not liking your chances to get one in the future.

Retirement saving is hard too. People should be starting when they’re young, but most don’t take the process seriously enough. They go on vacation when they have unused RRSP contribution room. They decide they’ll max out the TFSA next year, since this year they’ll piss away thousands of dollars on clothes, partying, eating crap food and procreating. You can argue all you want about the benefits of having children, but there is no doubt Junior is going to cost you.

After years of this, many people wake up one day, realize they’re 45, and the figurative light bulb goes off. They need to start saving for retirement, or else they’ll be eating cat food and living in their kids’ basement. So they start to save. But since they didn’t start early enough, their efforts will most likely come up short. Even with aggressive saving during your 40s and 50s, accumulating a nest egg big enough for a comfortable retirement is difficult. Government pensions will help, but many baby boomers are looking at a shortfall come retirement time.

Luckily, I’m here with a solution that’s probably been suggested dozens of times before, but WITHOUT ALL CAPS ANGER. Kids, are your parents still around? Or did they fall asleep or maybe went to yell at some teenagers for being on their lawn? Hey, I can understand. I hate teenagers too. But they’re gonna want to listen to this.

Let’s use Calgary prices as an example. If you go back and check out that graph I included in Monday’s post, the average house in Calgary is worth about $400,000. A quick look on Craigslist found all sorts of 2 bedroom condos that rent for $1000 per month in decent parts of the city, so let’s assume that’s what you’d pay if you sold your house in favor of renting.

Any profit from your principle residence is tax free, so you’d get the full $400k from a sale. If you took that full $400k and invested it in a basket of preferred shares/high yielding stocks/bonds that spun off a 7% return each year, you’d make a cool $28,000 per year. You wouldn’t pay much tax on those earnings either, since they’re mostly in the form of dividends.

If you add the approximately $1500 per month you’d max out on for your Canada government pension and old age security payment, you’re looking at making $46,000 per year, which is easily enough to live on, even paying $1000 per month on rent. If you’re married, you can add an additional $18,000 per year when your spouse collects their stipend as well.

Once you factor all that in, a retired couple in Calgary could make $64,000 per year, all without touching their principle, and that’s not factoring in a nickel of cash flow from their retirement savings. Not bad for not planning for retirement. If our imaginary couple lived in Toronto or Vancouver, they could do even better.

If they do stay in their house, their income falls close to 50%, down to $36,000 per year. Renting will cost them $12,000 per year, but they’ll make an additional $28,000 in income. By selling their home, our imaginary retired couple comes out $16,000 ahead each year. Their grandkids are going to CLEAN UP at Christmas.

Naturally, Martin and Hortense aren’t going to want to rent. They’ll be concerned about the hassle of moving (which should only happen once, and they’ll have strapping young grandkids to do the heavy lifting) and the unfounded concern their new landlord will suddenly increase the rent dramatically on them. What landlord wouldn’t want a nice older couple who want to stay for years? Unless rents shoot upwards for some reason, most landlords aren’t going to risk losing good tenants by getting too aggressive increasing their rent.

A word of caution before everybody above 60 reads this post and goes and sells their house. This strategy is particularly enticing in Canada, the land of maple syrup, Alan Thicke and inflated real estate prices. Rents are cheap because home ownership rates have never been higher. A robust real estate market combined with low interest rates has driven our real estate much higher. Many baby boomers are living in a house that’s doubled or tripled in value since they bought it.

Meanwhile, in the United States, we have the exact opposite situation. Many baby boomers have watched in horror as their precious equity went down the toilet. Renting is all the rage too, since most Americans aren’t very good at buying things when they’re low. The exact opposite situation is happening down south, so the plan doesn’t work too well down there.

It’s silly to continue to live in a $400,000 house for free when you don’t have enough money to have the retirement you want. You worked hard to pay off that house, now let it work for you.

 

It’s real estate week here at Financial Uproar. HEY! I heard all those groans of disappointment. You can just take your bad attitude and go home. What’s that? You’re already at home? Never mind then.

The Canadian real estate market has officially entered crazy territory. Pockets of the market are starting to resemble the hottest parts of American real estate, from circa 2005. Check out this chart of prices in Canada’s largest 8 cities:

Mucho thanks to cphc.biz for this graph

Take a second there and scroll back up to that graph. The average price of a house in Vancouver has gone from $350,000 in 2002 to over $1,000,000 today. To put that into context, a million bucks is almost 15 times Vancouver’s median household income of $67,550. A million bucks is still an important milestone for people who are trying to accumulate wealth. A million bucks is the ransom Dr. Evil was looking to get for the ENTIRE WORLD, albeit in 1969. It is a considerable amount of money. And, even these days, it should buy you more than an average house in Vancouver.

Then, we have Toronto. Admittedly, Toronto isn’t quite as bad as V-city. A median home in the 416 area code will set you back a mere $600,000. That’s only 9 times 2009′s median income. Geez, Toronto is almost affordable in comparison. Just for the heck of it, let’s take a look at the income to home price ratio for other Canadian cities:

Calgary: 5.1
Edmonton: 4.35
Montreal: 3.4
Ottawa: 3.75

(Note: These are somewhat rough estimates using the graph and the info from the previously linked Stats Canada info on family incomes. But they are close enough to get the point across)

There are two areas in the country which are firmly into bubble territory. There are other areas that are also alarmingly high, (Victoria and Kelowna pop into my head) but I have no data to back up my assertions for those cities. So we’re just going to focus on Toronto and Vancouver.

Want more proof of a bubble? With a bubble usually comes all sorts of speculation. In the condo markets of Toronto and Vancouver, speculation is about as rampant as this blog is with unfunny sex jokes. Check out this video of a condo development in Vancouver that sold out in mere hours:

Did you notice the part where only 150 people showed up, yet they bought 450 units? All sorts of investors speculators are showing up at these presales, with no intention of ever setting foot in their unit. They put down their deposit, wait a couple of years until it’s built, and then sell to an awaiting sucker. If you put 20% down for your deposit and the unit goes up 20%, you’ve doubled your money.

If you combine that with record low interest rates, (2.99% mortgages anyone?) loose lending standards, (cash back mortgages, stated income mortgages) upcoming tightening of banking regulations (currently being tossed around by OSFI, Canada’s banking regulator) and further speculation of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announcing further CMHC mortgage insurance restrictions, and you have one mother of a housing bubble, at least in TO and Vancity.

This is all fine and good, but you want me to get to the good stuff. How do you profit from this gigantic bubble popping? How can the average Joe play this obvious trend? And just how do I get Taylor Swift to unblock me on the Twitter? Sorry, that last one just slipped out.

I have some ideas. Allow me to present them to you in a fairly organized matter, with only a minimum of all angry caps.

The Banks

Canada has a fairly concentrated banking system. The Big 5 banks (CIBC, TD, Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank, Scotiabank) control something like 75% market share. They hold the majority of mortgages in Canada, with 2 out of every 3 mortgages held at one of the big 5. On the surface, this would be a good place to start if you were looking to bet on a collapse.

There’s only one problem. The banks are way ahead of you on this one. They aggressively have been unloading their mortgages in the secondary market, CMHC actually holds $300 billion worth of Canadian mortgage paper, along with insuring an additional $600 billion worth of mortgages. The big 5 banks have very little exposure to the high leverage loans that CMHC insures, and they’ve taken steps to minimize that exposure. They will weather the upcoming storm just fine.

Fringe Lenders

There are two in particular, First National and Home Trust, that are large, publicly traded, and strictly Canadian.

First National is primarily an A lender. (meaning it lends money to people with good credit and has CMHC insure the majority of their loans) It had a subprime division, but closed it down during the crisis of 2008-09, and hasn’t reopened it since. It will probably suffer with a decline in home values, but not substantially.

Home Trust is much more interesting. They specialize in B loans, lending to people with slightly bruised credit, self employed folks, and other unique situations that traditional lenders won’t touch with a 10 foot pole. (But a 9 foot pole? Totally different story) They will lend up to 85% of the value of the house, while CMHC insured loans go all the way up to a 95% loan to value ratio. Home Trust is currently trading near an all-time high, which is probably pretty good for someone looking to short it.

The bad news is, with these two stocks, you’d have to actually short them. Neither of them have call or put options, which can be the easy way to bet on a certain stock going down the crapper. Naked shorting is risky at the best of times, and if you did short these bad boys, you’d be responsible for paying the dividend on the shares you borrowed.

Home Improvement Retailers

One would think, once home prices start to stall in the 2 biggest markets, sales of home improvement retailers would suffer as well. Lots of house flippers, both amateur and professional, would exit the arena, since falling house prices are like Kriptonite to these guys. And where do these guys get their supplies from? NOT THE DUMP YOU MORON.

Both Home Depot and Lowe’s have exposure to Canada, but it’s irrelevant compared to their American business. That leaves Rona, which has already fallen close to 40% over the past year. The stock trades at a significant discount to book value and has been aggressively paying down debt. Sales are already suffering, an affliction they laughingly blamed on the weather.

I wouldn’t short Rona at this point, but it does have equity options listed on the Montreal Exchange, making it pretty easy to bet against the company.

REITs

The easiest way to short the Canadian REIT market is to buy a put option on XRE, the largest REIT ETF in Canada. I won’t get into details on the options market because I don’t understand much more than the basics. Using options to play the REIT market may be easy, I don’t think it would be that effective in shorting the market.

Most REITs have been around for many years. The majority of their property was more than likely acquired years ago, back when prices were much more reasonable. Plus, most REITs are exposed to the commercial real estate market, which is only loosely correlated to its residential cousin.

The biggest two REITs exposed to residential real estate are Boardwalk REIT and Canadian Apartment REIT. Between the two companies, they own 65,000 apartments across Canada. At first glance, they look like interesting shorting possibilities. Experts agree the condo markets of Toronto and Vancouver are especially frothy, and these guys basically own a whole bunch of them.

The problem is, as people lose their homes, they still need places to live. As we’ve witnessed in the U.S., everyone and their dog now recommends renting, ever since their housing collapse. Companies with a whole bunch of apartments acquired before the boom times may actually benefit as demand for rentals goes up.

Developers

Unfortunately, all the big players in the Canadian market are either privately held (Concord Pacific, Tridel Group) or subsidiaries of huge multinationals. (El-Ad Group) It’s a market dominated by privately held companies.

Terra Firma Capital and Tricon Capital both provide financing to condo developers, but they are both small companies that would be difficult to short. Google them if you want more info, you slacker.

If any readers know of any publicly traded developers, let me know in the comments. If there’s one of any substantial size, it may be the best way to play this.

Real Estate Brokerages

If the market slows to a crawl in the two biggest markets, that’s gotta be bad for the companies that sell this real estate, right?

Obviously, Century 21 and Remax are the two big boys, and they’ll be able to weather this storm, because they’re both primarily American companies. Canada’s third largest brokerage, Royal Lepage, is a big part of Brookfield Real Estate Services, a separate company from the monstrous REIT. It’s a relatively small company, with a market cap of around $130 million, and it pays an 8% dividend. However, it would most definitely be adversely affected by a real estate downturn.

Plus, a major downturn in Toronto and Vancouver would probably negatively affect the whole country, at least slowing down their sales. This is bad news for real estate agents everywhere, and bad news for the company dependent on their percentage on every sale.

Sell Your House And Rent

This is, by far, the best option out there, especially if you’re one of those baby boomers that keep asking me to fix their damn computers. (You know who you are) But, this post is already long enough, so you’ll just have to wait until Wednesday to hear more about that.

DUN DUN DUN! CLIFFHANGER ENDING!

 

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