Back in December, I asked most of the 10% of the personal finance blog-o-net who still speak to me to participate in a stock market picking competition. And, for some reason (my money is on pity) they mostly responded, submitting their 4 top pics for 2012 by the January 1st deadline. You may remember the original post, if not, go back and relive the sexy times.
A whole three months have passed since that fateful January day, so it’s time for an update. Have my dartboard stock picks managed to beat at least one person who regularly writes about money? Have the folks from Control Your Cash washed the egg from their face over their much mocked (by yours truly, anyway) choice of Netflix? Admit it, the anticipation is literally killing you. No, wait, that’s diabetes.
Let’s do this thang. First, my dartboard stocks.
(I’ll just list each person’s Q1 returns, plus some commentary. The returns will include dividends, but won’t include any currency fluctuations. We’ll use YTD numbers from Google Finance. If you want to see everyone’s original picks, you can find the link.)
1. White Bear Resources (-47.4%)
2. International Forest Products (+9.5%)
3. HomeAway Inc. (+8.9%)
4. Shaw Communications Series A Preferred Shares (-0.5%)
Total: Down 29.5%
Take that, efficient market theorists!
Now, the results from people who actually took a little time picking their stocks. I’ll list the blog, their overall percentage up (yes, everyone’s picks, on average, made money) and some
First off, who’s winning. We all know it’s JT McGee, right? That dude is a wizard at the stock market, even though he looks all of 14 years old. He reads annual reports like you read the back of the Cheerios box.
He’s smart, but there’s one he can’t guard against in this competition – dumb luck. Sustainable PF must have horseshoes up his ass, because he’s WINNING BABY!
1. Sustainable PF (+74.6%)
Before all of you go flooding over to their site looking for awesome stock tips, there’s something you should know about Simon and Marielle’s picks. One pick, Medical Marijuana Inc., is up a whopping 246%. (Going from 2 cents per share to a slightly more impressive 5.7 cents.) It was picked for my amusement, and I appreciated it at the time. Who knew it would perform so well?
2. Money Mamba (+38.9%)
The consensus favorite, JT, is near the top, right where you’d expect him. All 4 of his picks had a solid showing, with his worst performer only being up 15.9%. (That’s Ford) He hit a home run with Adams Golf, as it’s up over 66% since the beginning of the year. It’s being bought out, so at least the rest of us don’t have to worry about more upside on that one.
3. Control Your Cash (+32.3%)
No word on whether Greg and Betty actually bought any Netflix, but it’s leading the way for them, rising an impressive 66% since January 3rd. Like JT, their worst performer was Ford. I still think Netflix is a horrible investment, for the record.
4. Thousandaire (+30.1%)
Sitting in 4th place is the singing blogger himself, Kevin McKee. Buoyed by top pick Bank of America (up over 72%), Kevin has positioned himself nicely. His laggard, Pizza Inn, is down over 12%, or else he’s comfortably in 3rd, and maybe even challenging JT for 2nd. Kevin should go buy some pizza from them to both make him feel better and help his stock.
5. The Budgeting Tool (Formerly Fabulously Broke) (+26.7%)
Serena openly admitted she knows nothing about picking stocks when she entered the contest. Her logic was to pick the stocks of things she liked. She likes good investments, apparently. All 4 of her picks were solid performers. Apple lead the way with a 48% gain, and her others performed excellent as well.
6. Nelly (+24.7%)
YES! I’M NOT LAST!
Bank of America was my big winner, while RIM was my dog stock. Thanks to a good day on Friday, RIM is only down 1.1% for the quarter. I bought shares at $13.50 last week, and I’ll explain the thought process involved in a post later on this week.
7. My University Money (+16.8%)
Nothing really exciting to report here. Teacher Man picked Apple, which killed, Kelly Services, (which did good) Berkshire Hathaway (which did meh) and Halliburton (which was down). A solid performance, albeit a boring one. Quick, let’s move on before I doze off.
8. Holy Potato (+16.2%)
John is another stock picker I admire. He’s usually the one to point out flaws in my analysis in the comment section, and I usually agree with him. We’re both value investors, although I think I’m a little more contrarian than he is.
Anyway, he’s doing well with Superior Plus (up over 29%) and Indigo Books (up 22%). But, like me, RIM is holding him back.
9. Nelson’s Buddy Dale (+14.4)
All of you who are losing to Dale should probably just cancel your domains and quit blogging all together. I mean, you guys should see the texts he sends to me. He spells about as well as a drunk chimp. And yet, he’s beating 4 of you. For shame.
10. Boomer and Echo (+13.4%)
Maybe Echo should have referred to his Mommy for his picks, since his are pretty weak. In fact, if it wasn’t for picking Magna, (up 40%) he’d be close to the coveted toilet trophy. I suggest going to his blog and making fun of him for being a Mama’s boy.
11. Young And Thrifty (+4.5%)
Oh Y&T, it’s a good thing you’re sexy, because your stock picking skillz are kind of the pits.
I will give her credit for one thing though: all 4 of her picks are up. They’re just not up very much. Her best performer, BMO, was only up 6.1%. But still, she’s not last.
12. Don’t Quit Your Day Job (+0.8%)
Well, their site is appropriately named, since they’re really bad stock pickers. Like internet girlfriend Y&T, their picks stayed pretty close to even. Their best performing stock was AFLAC, rising 6.3%.
Aside: I want to shoot that stupid AFLAC duck.
13. Canadian Personal Finance (+0.6%)
HA HA! LET’S ALL POINT AND LAUGH AT STEVE FOR SUCKING!
BUT NOT YOU, DON’T QUIT YOUR DAY JOB. YOU ONLY SUCK SLIGHTLY LESS.
I’m just happy I’m in the middle of the pack. And, I’d just like to point out that everyone is beating my dartboard selections, so you all must be doing something right. Feel free to trash talk in the comment section.