Each year, I ask many of your favorite personal finance/investing bloggers (and Financial Uproar!) to participate in a stock picking contest. The rules are simple — each person picks four stocks, and I calculate the total return for the group, including dividends.
When we last left the contest, Don’t Quit Your Day Job was giving us all an ass kicking not seen since Whitney Houston was still alive and annoying Bobby Brown. He had amassed an impressive 31.8% total return, leading me to make the inevitable jokes about him actually quitting his day job and starting a hedge fund. Hey, I’m a believer. I’d give him hundreds of dollars to manage.
Without further adieu, let’s check out the most recent results. They’re current as of Wednesday’s closing prices, since I apparently had better things to do over the course of a week. They included shoving my hands down my pants (hey, gotta check things out down there), belching/farting, and winning the CHAMPIONSHIP GAME IN OUR REC SOCCER LEAGUE BABY.
|1.||Don’t Quit Your Day Job||34.9%|
|2.||Blog reader Ben||15.0%|
|3.||Blog reader Jeff||10.4%|
|6.||My Pennies My Thoughts||-1.7%|
|8.||Boomer and Echo||-2.6%|
|9.||Mochi and Macrons||-3.0%|
|10.||Blog reader Doug||-3.5%|
|14.||My Own Advisor||-7.3%|
|15.||Freedom 35 Blog||-14.0%|
And now, I will disguise making fun of every entrant by making observations about the contest in general.
- 101 Centavos was rescued by Sturn, Ruter, and Company, which makes guns. Shares are up more than 66% since the first of the year. The moral of the story is never bet against a company that gives Americans the ability to kill each other. It’s the ultimate growth industry.
- Don’t Quit Your Day Job is a machine, but this quarter’s results were primarily driven by Credit Acceptance Corp, which is up an astounding 100.4%. Naturally, I hope it goes to zero.
- Three competitors have had all four of their picks go down. Freedom 35 Blog is one of them. Not surprisingly, he’s in last place. He picked BlackBerry. What kind of moron would buy that stock? The other two are My Own Advisor and Money Propeller.
- Apparently the blog readers are smarter than the blog owners. I suggest they leverage this into untold riches and start their own blogs. Ben rode Tesla to an impressive showing, while most of Jeff’s gains came from Element Financial.
- My Own Advisor got unlucky. All four of his stocks went down, but none by more than 10%. His worst performer was Canadian Oil Sands which fell 9.9%.
- Energy was a popular choice, but didn’t deliver. Many different competitors had energy selections, with Penn West, Suncor, and Lightstream Resources being popular picks. Anne of Money Propeller went with an all energy portfolio, which didn’t work out so well. But hey, she beat yours truly by 0.01%.
- Vanessa’s Money went heavily into Russian stocks, which worked out well for her. Picking Suncor didn’t. Let that be a lesson to you, missy. Contrarianism always wins.
- My worst pick was Winnipeg Free Press (at $3.00 per share), which I was obviously early on. I bought it at $2.25 in real life, which puts me slightly ahead once you include the dividend. The current price is $2.12. Penn West was another dog for me, but I partially made up for it with nice returns from Village Farms and Hudson Bay.
And finally, let’s compare the results of our contest to the major indexes.
Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 0.5% if you reinvested the dividends. That would put it in 6th place out of 16.
Year to date, the TSX Composite (via XIC), is down 0.97% if you reinvested the dividends. That would also put it in 6th place out of 16.
Overall, if you totaled all the picks as one giant portfolio, it would be up 1.3%, which is a slight beat over the overall markets. Not that six months should be a indicator of anything (and DQYDJ’s impressive results are skewing things), but hey. At least we all collectively beat the market.
The deal with contests like these is you can’t really compare them to whole portfolios. I fully encouraged people to swing for the fences while making their picks, since that makes for more entertaining results. Energy stocks were popular choices for just that reason. And as always, these choices aren’t investment advice. You’re a moron if you invest in something just because you read it on a blog.